Eran Lerman: Iran's Nuclear Arsenal and Control of the Strait of Hormuz Determine Next Steps

Dr. Eran Lerman, former Deputy Head of the Israeli National Security Council, analyzes the developments in the war with Iran. He believes that the conflict has moved from the initial phase of successful strikes to a phase of strategic decisions. He emphasizes the critical importance of US-Israeli cooperation, which is characterized by an unprecedented coordination of operational actions. Militarily, Iran has suffered significant damage, with limited ability to protect its airspace and losses in its leadership. However, its ballistic capabilities remain. Lerman stresses that two fronts remain open and decisive: the nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has a stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%, meaning the nuclear issue is not closed. Either an agreement or more aggressive actions are needed to neutralize the remnants of the program. At the same time, Iran maintains the ability to put pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, affecting the global energy flow. The US is considering ways to remove this advantage from Iran, either through direct control or through operational interventions. Lerman believes that the battle for control of the Hormuz remains open, despite alternative routes and strategic reserves that have limited some of the disruption. The article concludes by pointing out that the political dimension of the crisis remains important.