Turkey Faces Demographic Shock? Scenarios Predict Population Decline of Up to 25 Million by 2100

Turkey is facing a potential demographic shock, as the fertility rate has fallen to 1.48, well below the population replacement level of 2.1. According to estimates by the United Nations and the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), the country's population could decline by 25 to 54 million by 2100 if current trends continue. The average age of first motherhood has increased to 29.3 years, and 57% of households do not have children. The Turkish Minister of Family and Social Services, Mahinur Özdemir Göktaş, warned that the decline in fertility has far-reaching implications, including economic and national security concerns. The government plans to address the issue by declaring the period 2026-2035 as the “decade of family and population”. The decline in fertility is linked to various factors, such as the rising cost of living, women's education, and changing social values. The government is expected to take measures to strengthen family policies and provide financial incentives to increase birth rates. Tackling the demographic problem is critical for Turkey, as an aging and shrinking population base can have negative consequences for economic growth, social welfare, and political stability. The success of the government's efforts will depend on its ability to address the root causes of the fertility decline and create a supportive environment for families.